INDEPENDENT FOOTBALL RESEARCH
Start with what success looks like. Then work backward through the evidence. Find the signal. Ignore the hype.
Real Data. Not Hype. An independent football research project.
THE NEXT CHAPTER
Washington, D.C. · April 29–May 1, 2027
Until estimated start · Eastern Time
Counting down to April 29 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern (EDT), an estimated start time. The NFL date announcement is linked below; 8:00 p.m. is this site’s estimated target, not a confirmed start time. Calendar months, then remaining 24-hour days and time. Official date announcement ↗
FINDMEMYQB’S PERSONAL DRAFT BOARD
My rankings. My draft values. A dated snapshot of the quarterbacks I’m watching, not a prediction or a confirmed declaration list.
Last updated at
Player ages and college starts are as of November 13, 2026. Heights are school-listed, not combine measurements. Class follows each school’s current roster and is not a remaining-eligibility estimate.
* I wouldn’t draft these guys because I’m not in love with them enough, even at the draft value shown above.
The 25-start threshold: Mestemaker and Manning currently have 24 starts; Carr has 21. They have not yet reached my minimum. Sellers and Mensah have. These rankings do not assume future starts have already happened.
If Austin Simmons goes back to school to get more starting experience, he will likely be my QB1 or QB2 of the 2028 class.
Chambliss is too old and too small for me to bet on with a valuable first- or second-round pick. I’m not in favor of “throwing darts at the QB board.” My preference is to target quarterbacks high in the first round rather than spend a valuable pick on someone I’m not sold on.
Moore has 24 total college starts, short of my 25-start minimum. He has not reached that threshold as of this update.
Rankings and draft preferences are FindMeMyQB’s editorial opinions. These two prospect tiers are separate from the three historical achievement tiers below. This board is manually updated; the timestamp changes only when an update is published. Inclusion does not mean a player has declared for the draft.
Starts count games started across college programs, not appearances. Future starts are not included.
01 / THE RESEARCH
Draft position, recruiting rankings and a highlight reel can tell different stories. This project separates what a quarterback actually accomplished in the NFL from what people expected beforehand.
Instead of guessing who will be great in the next draft, work backward. First identify who became a franchise quarterback. Then examine who they were before their first NFL snap. Is there a repeatable profile hiding in the data?
Explore the working pool →NFL achievements define the historical group. Pre-NFL traits are investigated afterward.
A pattern among selected successful quarterbacks is not a prospect’s probability of success.
Missing evidence stays missing. Opinions and forecasts should be dated and open to review.
Every year, NFL teams try to answer one question: How do you find a franchise quarterback?
Teams scout arm strength, accuracy, size, athleticism, production, experience, intelligence and age. And every year, they still get quarterbacks wrong.
Instead of starting with the next draft class, I wanted to work backward. First define NFL success. Then examine what these quarterbacks had in common before their NFL careers.
The current working framework contains 28 quarterbacks in three tiers, assigned using published achievement routes with explicitly disclosed editorial exceptions. It replaces the earlier four-tier framework. It is not an official NFL classification or a validated prediction model.
Eligibility starts with quarterbacks who made their NFL regular-season debut in 1998 or later. Debut means first regular-season appearance, not first start, draft year, signing date or preseason appearance. Undrafted players can qualify.
Evaluation cutoff: end of the 2025 NFL season, including its postseason and awards. The 2026 season is excluded. Future season updates wait until the postseason and awards are complete.
Apply the highest qualifying tier first. Only AP NFL MVP and AP All-Pro honors count; First- and Second-Team All-Pro recognition in the same season counts as one season. MVP finishes require actual votes, including tied ranks. Conference championships and Super Bowls count starts at quarterback, not roster membership. Retired quarterbacks ordinarily need 100 NFL regular-season starts; active quarterbacks do not. Pro Bowls have zero weight.
* Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence are explicit eye-test inclusions selected by FindMeMyQB, not qualifiers through the listed achievement routes. Luck also receives an explicit exception to the retired-player minimum of 100 NFL regular-season starts (he finished with 86).
This is a selected editorial cohort, not an exhaustive or purely mechanical classification. Chad Pennington and Carson Wentz are excluded by FindMeMyQB’s eye-test decision. Daunte Culpepper, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Darnold are not included in the current list. Kurt Warner is specifically excluded because his initial NFL signing was before 1998, despite his 1998 regular-season debut; this does not change the debut-date eligibility rule.
College traits do not determine the achievement routes. The next research step is to compare this selected group with quarterbacks who had meaningful NFL opportunities but did not qualify, using the same pre-NFL evidence. Patterns in a selected successful group alone cannot establish predictive value.
This revision is dated and visible. It does not claim the criteria have always been unchanged. The current tables cover all 28; summaries use explicitly eligible denominators and leave unresolved records out.
Find the evidence. Test the assumptions. This is Find Me My QB.
THE PEOPLE BEHIND THE RESEARCH
Historical photographs for editorial context. Inclusion does not imply endorsement.
02 / QUARTERBACK EXPLORER
What qualifies each tier? Each card below shows its editorial criteria. All three stay visible when filtering. The thresholds and editorial exceptions are stated explicitly below.
THE FRAMEWORK
Explicit achievement routes, with disclosed editorial exceptions. A quarterback is assigned to the highest tier they meet.
Evaluation cutoff: end of the 2025 NFL season, including its postseason and awards. The 2026 season is excluded. Future season updates wait until the postseason and awards are complete.
At least 2 AP NFL MVP awards AND at least 1 Super Bowl victory as the starting quarterback.
At least 1 AP NFL MVP award OR 3 distinct AP First- or Second-Team All-Pro seasons OR 2 Super Bowl MVP awards.
At least 1 AP First- or Second-Team All-Pro selection OR a top-3 AP MVP finish with votes OR 2 Super Bowl starts OR 3 conference-championship starts OR 2 top-5 AP MVP finishes with votes OR a top-5 AP MVP finish with votes plus 2 conference-championship starts.
Apply the highest qualifying tier first. Only AP NFL MVP and AP All-Pro honors count; First- and Second-Team All-Pro recognition in the same season counts as one season. MVP finishes require actual votes, including tied ranks. Conference championships and Super Bowls count starts at quarterback, not roster membership. Retired quarterbacks ordinarily need 100 NFL regular-season starts; active quarterbacks do not. Pro Bowls have zero weight.
* Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence are explicit eye-test inclusions selected by FindMeMyQB, not qualifiers through the listed achievement routes. Luck also receives an explicit exception to the retired-player minimum of 100 NFL regular-season starts (he finished with 86).
This is a selected editorial cohort, not an exhaustive or purely mechanical classification. Chad Pennington and Carson Wentz are excluded by FindMeMyQB’s eye-test decision. Daunte Culpepper, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Darnold are not included in the current list. Kurt Warner is specifically excluded because his initial NFL signing was before 1998, despite his 1998 regular-season debut; this does not change the debut-date eligibility rule.
These thresholds are FindMeMyQB’s choices, not NFL designations or proof of predictive accuracy. Linked evidence records the route used for each player; an exhaustive independent audit of every eligible quarterback is not claimed.
THE COMPLETE WORKING GROUP
Names are not ranked within a tier. Select any player for the achievement route and research profile.
* Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence are explicit eye-test inclusions selected by FindMeMyQB, not qualifiers through the listed achievement routes. Luck also receives an explicit exception to the retired-player minimum of 100 NFL regular-season starts (he finished with 86).
This is a selected editorial cohort, not an exhaustive or purely mechanical classification. Chad Pennington and Carson Wentz are excluded by FindMeMyQB’s eye-test decision. Daunte Culpepper, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Darnold are not included in the current list. Kurt Warner is specifically excluded because his initial NFL signing was before 1998, despite his 1998 regular-season debut; this does not change the debut-date eligibility rule.
SIDE BY SIDE / THE PRE-NFL EVIDENCE
Compare up to three players from the 28-quarterback group, side by side.
EVERY PLAYER · SAME COLUMN DEFINITIONS
Age range: 20–23 at draft-year reference. BMI is calculated from the listed entry measurements, not a health judgment or athletic score. Quarter-inch precision is retained where available; whole-inch sources are not made more precise.
| Quarterback | Tier | Draft / entry | Age | Entry height | lb | BMI | NCAA QB starts | Measurement context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | Tier 1 | 2000 · R6, #199 | 22 | 6 ft 4.375 in | 211 | 25.4 | 25 | Combine, original reporter retrospectivesource verified |
| Peyton Manning | Tier 1 | 1998 · R1, #1 | 22 | 6 ft 5 in | 230 | 27.3 | 45 | 1998 rookie-season listingsource verified |
| Aaron Rodgers | Tier 1 | 2005 · R1, #24 | 21 | 6 ft 2 in | 223 | 28.6 | 22 | 2005 contemporary Combine-era prospect reportsource verified |
| Patrick Mahomes | Tier 1 | 2017 · R1, #10 | 21 | 6 ft 2 in | 225 | 28.9 | 29 | 2017 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Drew Brees | Tier 2 | 2001 · R2, #32 | 22 | 6 ft 0.25 in | 213 | 28.7 | 37 | 2001 contemporary pre-draft listingsource verified |
| Lamar Jackson | Tier 2 | 2018 · R1, #32 | 21 | 6 ft 2.25 in | 216 | 27.5 | 33*Reconstructed; sources also report 34. See profile for conflicting evidence. | 2018 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Josh Allen | Tier 2 | 2018 · R1, #7 | 21 | 6 ft 4.875 in | 237 | 28.2 | 26 | 2018 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Matthew Stafford | Tier 2 | 2009 · R1, #1 | 21 | 6 ft 2.25 in | 225 | 28.7 | 34 | 2009 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Matt Ryan | Tier 2 | 2008 · R1, #3 | 22 | 6 ft 4.75 in | 228 | 27.2 | 32 | 2008 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Cam Newton | Tier 2 | 2011 · R1, #1 | 21 | 6 ft 5 in | 248 | 29.4 | 14 | 2011 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Eli Manning | Tier 2 | 2004 · R1, #1 | 23 | 6 ft 4.75 in | 221 | 26.4 | 37 | 2004 contemporary pre-draft prospect reportsource verified |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Tier 3 | 2004 · R1, #11 | 22 | 6 ft 4.875 in | 241 | 28.7 | 38 | 2004 contemporary pre-draft prospect reportsource verified |
| Russell Wilson | Tier 3 | 2012 · R3, #75 | 23 | 5 ft 10.625 in | 204 | 28.8 | 50 | 2012 NFL Combine measurements reported by NFL teamsource verified |
| Philip Rivers | Tier 3 | 2004 · R1, #4 | 22 | 6 ft 5 in | 229 | 27.2 | 51 | 2004 contemporary pre-draft prospect reportsource verified |
| Donovan McNabb | Tier 3 | 1999 · R1, #2 | 22 | 6 ft 2 in | 226 | 29.0 | 49 | 1999 rookie-season fallback, not Combinesource verified |
| Tony Romo | Tier 3 | 2003 · Undrafted | 23 | 6 ft 2 in | 230 | 29.5 | 35 | 2003 draft scouting record, not confirmed Combine eventsource verified |
| Dak Prescott | Tier 3 | 2016 · R4, #135 | 22 | 6 ft 2.25 in | 226 | 28.8 | 33 | 2016 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Carson Palmer | Tier 3 | 2003 · R1, #1 | 23 | 6 ft 5 in | 232 | 27.5 | 45 | 2003 official team report from Combinesource verified |
| Jalen Hurts | Tier 3 | 2020 · R2, #53 | 21 | 6 ft 1 in | 222 | 29.3 | 42 | 2020 NFL Combinesource verified |
| Drake Maye | Tier 3 | 2024 · R1, #3 | 21 | 6 ft 4.375 in | 223 | 26.9 | 26 | NFL 2024 pre-draft measurementssource verified |
| Michael Vick | Tier 3 | 2001 · R1, #1 | 20 | 6 ft 0 in | 211 | 28.6 | 21 | 2001 NFL Combine, contemporary eyewitness reportsource verified |
| Derek Carr | Tier 3 | 2014 · R2, #36 | 23 | 6 ft 2.375 in | 214 | 27.2 | 39 | NFL 2014 pre-draft measurementssource verified |
| Joe Flacco | Tier 3 | 2008 · R1, #18 | 23 | 6 ft 6.375 in | 236 | 27.0 | 26 | NFL 2008 pre-draft measurementssource verified |
| Joe Burrow | Tier 3 | 2020 · R1, #1 | 23 | 6 ft 3.5 in | 221 | 27.3 | 28 | 2020 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Jared Goff | Tier 3 | 2016 · R1, #1 | 21 | 6 ft 4 in | 215 | 26.2 | 37 | 2016 NFL draft prospect recordsource verified |
| Brock Purdy | Tier 3 | 2022 · R7, #262 | 22 | 6 ft 0.625 in | 212 | 28.3 | 46 | NFL 2022 pre-draft measurementssource verified |
| Andrew Luck | Tier 3 | 2012 · R1, #1 | 22 | 6 ft 4 in | 234 | 28.5 | 38 | 2012 NFL Combinesource verified |
| Trevor Lawrence | Tier 3 | 2021 · R1, #1 | 21 | 6 ft 5.625 in | 213 | 24.9 | 36 | NFL 2021 pre-draft measurements; not Combinesource verified |
Junior-college starts are separate: Rodgers has 22 Cal starts plus a candidate 11 at Butte; Newton 14 Auburn plus reported 12 Blinn; Allen 26 Wyoming plus secondary-supported 6 Reedley. Those additions are not passed off as NCAA starts. Ben has 38 and Eli 37 verified NCAA quarterback starts. Lamar: 33 reconstructed QB starts; other primary records report 34. His non-QB start against Auburn is described differently by the sources. The exact-total conflict remains disclosed; either total exceeds 25. See his profile for the records.
CURRENT 28-QUARTERBACK COHORT · UPDATED NOVEMBER 14, 2026
All 28 quarterbacks are represented below. Every card uses the full 28-player cohort and distinguishes verified matches, verified non-matches and unresolved records.
These are descriptive patterns, not predictive rules. This selected group includes editorial exceptions. Without controls and out-of-sample testing, a common trait does not establish why someone succeeded. Thresholds are exploratory, not new entry requirements.
Download 28-player CSV · Download records with sources
28 verified matching · 0 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
27 actual draft records; undrafted Romo uses the end of his draft year’s draft, not an invented selection.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: None
Excluded / unresolved: None
20 verified matching · 8 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
Undrafted Romo counts as not selected in Round 1.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, Brock Purdy
Excluded / unresolved: None
16 verified matching · 12 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
Draft position, not college or NFL debut order.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Brock Purdy
Excluded / unresolved: None
10 verified matching · 18 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
Draft position; all 28 entry records covered.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Brock Purdy
Excluded / unresolved: None
23 verified matching · 5 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
Verified source subset; mixed Combine, pre-draft and rookie listings. All 28 are source-backed mixed-entry records, not all original Combine sheets. Romo uses a contemporary draft scouting printout; Brady original-reporter notes; McNabb rookie reporting.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, Michael Vick, Brock Purdy
Excluded / unresolved: None
27 verified matching · 1 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
Same source-verified mixed-entry subset, not current NFL roster weights.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Russell Wilson
Excluded / unresolved: None
19 verified matching · 9 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
Exploratory descriptive threshold, not a requirement for success.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck
Does not match: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Michael Vick, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence
Excluded / unresolved: None
25 verified matching · 3 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
NCAA only, including FCS/postseason; excludes JUCO. Lamar: 33 reconstructed QB starts; other primary records report 34. His non-QB start against Auburn is described differently by the sources. The exact-total conflict remains disclosed; either total exceeds 25. See his profile for the records. Ben and Eli are now reconciled using primary records.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Michael Vick
Excluded / unresolved: None
26 verified matching · 2 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Cam Newton, Michael Vick
Excluded / unresolved: None
19 verified matching · 9 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow
Excluded / unresolved: None
21 verified matching · 7 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick
Excluded / unresolved: None
8 verified matching · 20 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff
Excluded / unresolved: None
28 verified matching · 0 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: None
Excluded / unresolved: None
23 verified matching · 5 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick
Excluded / unresolved: None
12 verified matching · 16 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco, Brock Purdy
Excluded / unresolved: None
27 verified matching · 1 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Matt Ryan
Excluded / unresolved: None
16 verified matching · 12 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff
Excluded / unresolved: None
26 verified matching · 2 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Cam Newton, Michael Vick
Excluded / unresolved: None
12 verified matching · 16 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck
Excluded / unresolved: None
22 verified matching · 6 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Dak Prescott, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco
Excluded / unresolved: None
23 verified matching · 5 verified not matching · 0 unresolved. Unresolved records are neither matches nor failures.
All NCAA games including bowls where reconciled; JUCO excluded. All 28 postseason scopes are reconciled; Romo includes reconstructed 2000/2001 playoff games. FBS/FCS and eras are not adjusted.
Matches: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence
Does not match: Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick
Excluded / unresolved: None
Each metric uses its stated coverage. These are unadjusted distributions, not recommended prospect cutoffs. Goff’s yardage and derived values use the detailed Cal career table, resolving the conflicting biography prose.
| Metric | Range | Median | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draft-year age | 20–23 | 22 | 28/28 |
| Entry height (inches) | 70.625–78.375 | 75.75 | 28/28 |
| Entry weight (lb) | 204–248 | 224 | 28/28 |
| Entry BMI | 24.9–29.5 | 28.25 | 28/28 |
| NCAA starts | 14–51 | 35.5 | 28/28 |
| Career completion (%) | 56.11–68.78 | 62.72 | 28/28 |
| TD:INT | 1.47–7.09 | 2.76 | 28/28 |
| Yards/attempt | 6.91–9.96 | 8.14 | 28/28 |
| Interception rate (%) | 1.16–3.83 | 2.25 | 28/28 |
| Pass attempts | 292.00–1789.00 | 1112.00 | 28/28 |
| Passing yards | 2908.00–13983.00 | 9403.00 | 28/28 |
| Passing touchdowns | 22.00–113.00 | 80.50 | 28/28 |
| Interceptions | 7.00–49.00 | 28.00 | 28/28 |
Comparison target: NCAA career, all games including postseason, excluding JUCO. Older NCAA record books omitted bowls; reconstructed totals are labeled in each profile. Tony Romo’s omitted 2000 and 2001 playoff games are restored using official individual box scores. Goff’s detailed Cal career-history table and season totals agree on 12,200 yards; that statistical table supersedes conflicting biography prose. No era, strength-of-schedule or scheme adjustment is implied.
| Quarterback | Comp / Att | Comp% | Yards | TD | INT | TD:INT | Yards/Att | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 443/711 | 62.3% | 5,351 | 35 | 19 | 1.84:1 | 7.53 | NCAA all games |
| Peyton Manning | 943/1,505 | 62.7% | 12,114 | 96 | 34 | 2.82:1 | 8.05 | NCAA all games |
| Aaron Rodgers | 424/665 | 63.8% | 5,469 | 43 | 13 | 3.31:1 | 8.22 | NCAA all games |
| Patrick Mahomes | 857/1,349 | 63.5% | 11,252 | 93 | 29 | 3.21:1 | 8.34 | NCAA all games |
| Drew Brees | 1,026/1,678 | 61.1% | 11,792 | 90 | 45 | 2.00:1 | 7.03 | NCAA all games |
| Lamar Jackson | 619/1,086 | 57.0% | 9,043 | 69 | 27 | 2.56:1 | 8.33 | NCAA all games |
| Josh Allen | 365/649 | 56.2% | 5,066 | 44 | 21 | 2.10:1 | 7.81 | NCAA all games |
| Matthew Stafford | 564/987 | 57.1% | 7,731 | 51 | 33 | 1.55:1 | 7.83 | NCAA all games |
| Matt Ryan | 807/1,347 | 59.9% | 9,313 | 56 | 37 | 1.51:1 | 6.91 | NCAA all games |
| Cam Newton | 191/292 | 65.4% | 2,908 | 30 | 7 | 4.29:1 | 9.96 | NCAA all games |
| Eli Manning | 841/1,383 | 60.8% | 10,286 | 84 | 36 | 2.33:1 | 7.44 | NCAA all games |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 854/1,304 | 65.5% | 10,829 | 84 | 34 | 2.47:1 | 8.30 | NCAA all games |
| Russell Wilson | 907/1,489 | 60.9% | 11,720 | 109 | 30 | 3.63:1 | 7.87 | NCAA all games |
| Philip Rivers | 1,137/1,789 | 63.6% | 13,983 | 98 | 37 | 2.65:1 | 7.82 | NCAA all games |
| Donovan McNabb | 595/1,040 | 57.2% | 9,237 | 81 | 29 | 2.79:1 | 8.88 | NCAA all games |
| Tony Romo | 626/1,017 | 61.6% | 8,810 | 92 | 39 | 2.36:1 | 8.66 | NCAA all games |
| Dak Prescott | 734/1,169 | 62.8% | 9,376 | 70 | 23 | 3.04:1 | 8.02 | NCAA all games |
| Carson Palmer | 927/1,569 | 59.1% | 11,818 | 72 | 49 | 1.47:1 | 7.53 | NCAA all games |
| Jalen Hurts | 682/1,047 | 65.1% | 9,477 | 80 | 20 | 4.00:1 | 9.05 | NCAA all games |
| Drake Maye | 618/952 | 64.9% | 8,018 | 63 | 16 | 3.94:1 | 8.42 | NCAA all games |
| Michael Vick | 202/360 | 56.1% | 3,504 | 22 | 12 | 1.83:1 | 9.73 | NCAA all games |
| Derek Carr | 1,086/1,630 | 66.6% | 12,842 | 113 | 24 | 4.71:1 | 7.88 | NCAA all games |
| Joe Flacco | 596/942 | 63.3% | 7,057 | 41 | 15 | 2.73:1 | 7.49 | NCAA all games |
| Joe Burrow | 650/945 | 68.8% | 8,852 | 78 | 11 | 7.09:1 | 9.37 | NCAA all games |
| Jared Goff | 977/1,569 | 62.3% | 12,200 | 96 | 30 | 3.20:1 | 7.78 | NCAA all games |
| Brock Purdy | 993/1,467 | 67.7% | 12,170 | 81 | 33 | 2.45:1 | 8.30 | NCAA all games |
| Andrew Luck | 713/1,064 | 67.0% | 9,430 | 82 | 22 | 3.73:1 | 8.86 | NCAA all games |
| Trevor Lawrence | 758/1,138 | 66.6% | 10,098 | 90 | 17 | 5.29:1 | 8.87 | NCAA all games |
Every player was younger than 24 at the draft-year reference point. Vick was 20, so the expanded range is 20–23, not 21–23. Romo was undrafted; his draft-end reference is explicitly different from an actual selection date.
| Quarterback | Age | Reference | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22 | NFL draft selection date · 2000-04-16 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Peyton Manning | 22 | NFL draft selection date · 1998-04-18 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Aaron Rodgers | 21 | NFL draft selection date · 2005-04-23 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Patrick Mahomes | 21 | NFL draft selection date · 2017-04-27 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Drew Brees | 22 | NFL draft selection date · 2001-04-21 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Lamar Jackson | 21 | NFL draft selection date · 2018-04-26 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Josh Allen | 21 | NFL draft selection date · 2018-04-26 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Matthew Stafford | 21 | NFL draft selection date · 2009-04-25 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Matt Ryan | 22 | NFL draft selection date · 2008-04-26 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Cam Newton | 21 | NFL draft selection date · 2011-04-28 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Eli Manning | 23 | NFL draft selection date · 2004-04-24 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22 | NFL draft selection date · 2004-04-24 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Russell Wilson | 23 | NFL draft selection date · 2012-04-27 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Philip Rivers | 22 | NFL draft selection date · 2004-04-24 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Donovan McNabb | 22 | NFL draft selection date · 1999-04-17 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Tony Romo | 23 | 2003 NFL draft END date, NOT selection/signing date; undrafted · 2003-04-27 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Dak Prescott | 22 | NFL draft selection date · 2016-04-30 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Carson Palmer | 23 | NFL draft selection date · 2003-04-26 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Jalen Hurts | 21 | Age during draft; no day-count precision claimed. | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Drake Maye | 21 | Age during draft; no day-count precision claimed. | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Michael Vick | 20 | Age during draft; no day-count precision claimed. | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Derek Carr | 23 | Age during draft; no day-count precision claimed. | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Joe Flacco | 23 | Age during draft; no day-count precision claimed. | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Joe Burrow | 23 | NFL draft selection date · 2020-04-23 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Jared Goff | 21 | NFL draft selection date · 2016-04-28 | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ · Source 3 ↗ |
| Brock Purdy | 22 | Age during draft; no day-count precision claimed. | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Andrew Luck | 22 | Age during draft; no day-count precision claimed. | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
| Trevor Lawrence | 21 | Age during draft; no day-count precision claimed. | Source 1 ↗ · Source 2 ↗ |
03 / THE METHOD
Define the outcome. Lock the standards. Then find the pre-NFL clues. This classification is Find Me My QB’s research framework, not an official NFL designation. It is educational analysis, not a validated predictive model or a promise of NFL success.
Specify which NFL achievements qualify a quarterback before examining the traits that might predict them.
Compare with quarterbacks who received meaningful NFL opportunity: draft disappointments, backups, average starters and near-misses. Define meaningful opportunity before testing the data.
Record college starts, age, recruiting and scouting as known before the draft, not through hindsight.
Distinguish correlation from causation. Preserve forecasts rather than rewriting them after results arrive.
College starts and experience; age; size and athletic profile; throwing tools and accuracy; production and interception context; competition and scheme; preparation and processing; recruiting-service disagreement; draft position and historical context. None is presented as a guaranteed formula.
04 / THE PROSPECT NOTEBOOK
Prospect profiles separate verified facts, film observations and open questions. The draft board above is FindMeMyQB’s dated opinion, not a success-probability model.
Starts alone need context: competition, play design, responsibilities and development over time.
Compare contemporaneous recruiting and scouting records. Log conflicting or unavailable information.
Identify the evidence still needed and date a prediction before its outcome becomes known.
FOLLOW THE SEASON
Follow official FBS scores and schedules, then return to the questions behind the quarterback evaluation.
Open the NCAA’s FBS scoreboard for games, dates and scores maintained by the publisher.
Open NCAA scoreboard →A CBS Sports preseason ranking provides one analyst’s perspective, not Find Me My QB’s evaluation or a current eligibility guarantee.
Read the dated CBS analysis →The personal draft board above includes sourced player details and a publication timestamp. Automatic schedules and ranking feeds are not connected; updates are editorial and manual.
These are external resources, not an embedded live data feed. Their publishers control content and updates.
THE PROJECT BEHIND THE QUESTION
Find Me My QB is an independent football research and media project.
The goal is to make quarterback evaluation easier to understand: explain the rules, show the evidence and challenge the narratives that survive without being tested.
Research essays, historical profiles and future video explainers will build on this foundation. This is independent analysis, not an affiliation with the NFL or any team.
LET’S TALK QUARTERBACKS
Have a question, a source to share or a different perspective on the research? Get in touch with Find Me My QB.
findmemyqb@gmail.comRESEARCH NOTES & SOURCES
Inspect the full evidence register →
AROUND THE FOOTBALL CONVERSATION
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